CPSIA – CPSC Shows Its True Colors in the Annals of Absurdity

In a move calculated to test the limits of what I can get you to believe, the CPSC last week conducted a raid in New York City to confiscate imported chocolate Easter eggs to save America from a choking hazard.

CPSIA – Why Does The Press Push Bad Ideas?

Last week, Justin Pritchard of the Associated Press again pressed the point that glassware with lead in the enamel should be recalled. He expressed shock at the “stunning” news that the CPSC reconsidered its view that the glasses are subject to the noxious lead regulations of the CPSIA.

Why did Mr. Pritchard find this outcome “stunning”? After all, in response to a question about the risks involved in the glasses, Pritchard had this to say in a TV interview: “The [lead and cadmium] levels are low in the sense of . . . no one is going to touch this glass, put their hand to their mouth and fall ill. This is a low level over time concern.” If the glasses are a low risk, why would he expect a federal regulator to waste time or resources on them?

Even more remarkably, Pritchard knows that the McDonalds Shrek glasses were found to be non-toxic by the CPSC. He broke the McDonalds story. The Shrek glasses present precisely the same “issue”. He also knows lead is only restricted in children’s products and that enamel coatings containing lead are permitted explicitly in the law (16 CFR 1303.2(b)(1)). There is no evidence that the presence of lead in the enamel has ever injured anyone. Ever.

So why is Pritchard continuing to push a story that he knows is defective? This puts it kindly. Let’s rule out that he is seeking a Pulitzer or has an ill-motive. Why would he do this?

Of course, we know there is a bias in reporting and in investigating that favors reporting “bad news”. Good news is not really considered news at all (except on the sports page). The media’s incentive is to publish terrifying stories – it sells papers and banner ads, and it’s natural for Congress to push legislation to save us from poorly understood threats as an extension of this trend. But something else is at play, it turns out.

This subject is analyzed in an interesting article by Jonah Lehrer in this week’s New Yorker magazine entitled “The Truth Wears Off”. Lehrer tries to explain why replication of scientific studies tends to show declining results over time. This is quite unexpected given that scientific studies are subject to peer reviews and are often published by periodicals with their own high standards of review. Lehrer notes that in small studies, weird results can show up (such as a 1930′s study which claimed that one Duke University student had ESP but later retesting revealed the student’s rapidly diminishing extrasensory powers . . .). In larger pools of data, results revert to a mean (this is called “funneling”). However even statistical significance doesn’t explain the phenomenon. Lehrer shows that we only get to see certain slices of data. Most data won’t be published because it’s not interesting or doesn’t confirm prejudices.

Put into a CPSIA context, Lehrer implicitly argues that media won’t write a story announcing that lead-in-enamel on your glassware is safe. Nor that you were always fine and your children weren’t in danger. Nor that there have been few injuries from lead in any children’s products. Nor that the few known injuries in the context of the large volume of products in use is actually a GOOD result. Nor that there are no identified victims of “phthalate poisoning” or that incidents of cadmium poisoning in American children are virtually unknown. The excuse – it’s not “newsworthy”. What’s the reality?

The reality is that we are exposed to a very imbalanced set of data. Quoting Michael Jennions, a biologist at the Australian National University, Lehrer argues that “the tendency of scientists and scientific journals [is] to prefer positive data over null results, which is what happens when no effect is found.” If the null set (the “everything’s fine” news) doesn’t get reported, what does? Says Richard Palmer, a biologist at the University of Alberta, “We cannot escape the troubling conclusion that some – perhaps many – cherished generalities are at best exaggerated in their biological significance and at worst a collective illusion nurtured by strong a-priori beliefs often repeated.”

The same mantra over and over? The words “Rachel Weintraub” suddenly pop into my mind.

Lehrer continues: “[T]he problem seems to be one of subtle omissions and unconscious misperceptions, as researchers struggle to make sense of their results. Stephen Jay Gould referred to this as the ‘shoehorning’ process.” Referring to studies in Asia that consistently confirm that acupuncture is effective, and studies in the West that show much poorer results, “Palmer notes, this wide discrepancy suggests that scientists find ways to confirm their preferred hypothesis, disregarding what they don’t want to see. Our beliefs are a form of blindness.”

Or to quote Robert Adler, anecdotes aren’t evidence.

John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist at Stanford University who once published a study entitled “Why Most Published Research Findings are False”, calls the phenomenon “significance chasing” where scientists play with numbers trying to find “anything that seems worthy”. In a news context, this is the same as Pritchard fingering the Super Hero glasses on the grounds that there is lead in the enamel even though he knows the Shrek glasses were safe. Maybe these other glasses are a problem?! Jeff Plungis of Bloomberg published an article on lead in Christmas light wires on December 8th because he apparently thought it was “interesting” and not well-known. Same thing.

Ioannidis says “It feels good to validate a hypothesis. It feels even better when you’ve got a financial interest in the idea or your career depends on it. And that’s why even after a claim has been systematically disproved . . .you still see some stubborn researchers citing the first few studies that show a strong effect. They really want to believe that it’s true.” [Emphasis added]

Lehrer’s article is a great read, I recommend it to you.

So you can stop scratching your head. Pritchard and Plungis, Adler and Tenenbaum, Waxman and Schakowsky, Weintraub and Green, will all continue to beat the same drum. They know they’re right . . . they just can’t prove it. And they will continue to repeat themselves in spite of the facts of this case:

• There are (virtually) no known victims.
• The impact of the law cannot be measured.
• The nexus between lead in children’s products and purported injury to children is not proven. This means that the inclusion in the law of so many formerly unregulated categories of goods is absolutely unjustified.
• The benefits of prophylactic testing has been disproved by the passage of time – the last 29 months.
• The law targets small business and lets big business off the hook. Even since passage of the CPSIA, it is clear from data that big business are responsible for headline recalls.

I guess the media keeps on publishing these stories because it’s human nature. Unfortunately, many jobs and many futures have been damaged in the service of a human weakness. I like to think we can rise about such limitations. It is in the hands of the CPSC and Congress to solve this problem.

Let’s hope they do their job . . . sometime really soon.

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CPSIA – Why Does The Press Push Bad Ideas?

CPSIA – Commission Delays Vote on Lead Content Stay for One Day

In this morning’s hearing on extending the testing and certification stay (the “Stay”), the Commission opted to carve-out lead content from the Stay. The decision on how to handle lead content under the Stay is docketed for a ballot vote tomorrow. [Just to clarify, other aspects of the Stay were extended today including situations where the rules and certifications have not been completed, such as ASTM F963 and phthalates.]

Frankly, the demise of the Waxman CPSIA amendment throws a HUGE curve ball at the Commission. Now that Waxman’s fractious process derailed his attempt to “fix” the CPSIA, however ham-handed that attempt may have been, it seems that change is in the air. Will the Commission plunge on ahead with its big decision as though nothing has changed? Your guess is as good as mine. Unfortunately, things are happening so fast that events are literally overlapping – the news about the dead amendment came as the CPSC was completing its morning hearing. It seems to me that the Commission must now take even more time to carefully consider its next steps – this historic opportunity to force common sense change should not be squandered.

It seems equally important that the Commission reject partisanship and pull together, even if it takes more time and more debating (off-line and in the public eye). The poisoned partisan atmosphere of Waxman’s House Energy and Commerce Committee sadly seems to have migrated to the CPSC Commission. In today’s hearing, Commissioner Northup called for more effort by the Commission to reach 5-0 votes. What a timely call THAT was! The failure of the Waxman amendment can be interpreted as Congressional rejection of partisan control of safety by the Democrats alone. Over the course of the past year, partisan hubris led to extremism, culminating in a small number of Democrats co-opting the law as self-appointed defenders of the “will of Congress”. Safety belongs to everyone – it’s not political. The call to action now is for the Commission to act as one. Whatever damage the Waxman fiasco caused to working relationships needs to be rapidly repaired through the individual leadership of the Chairman and the other Commissioners.

The Commission has balloted Anne Northup’s motion to delay lifting the Stay on lead content until six months after the issuance of the so-called “15 Month Rule”. This proposal, acknowledged by Inez Tenenbaum to be based on “common sense”, is not likely to be adopted without a gentle shove. Ms. Tenenbaum herself stated that manufacturers had asked for a “date certain” when the Stay would be lifted. [One can only hope that she was confusing a reasonable request for certainty, as in knowing what the rules are and when they will be imposed, with a request for a deadline. I cannot imagine who would demand a compliance deadline from the CPSC without knowing what the rules actually are, and if such a (neurotic) person exists, I would like to speak to him/her to better understand WHY they think this would be helpful.]

Even more worrisome, Commissioner Bob Adler contended that “Congress” wanted to be sure that everyone is in compliance with the law. [This personification of Congress is very troubling, especially since the Waxman fiasco makes clear that the original CPSIA votes no longer reflect the will of Congress today - or else how was an amendment by the powerful Henry Waxman stopped? This kind of thinking needs to be revisited.] Mr. Adler further asserted that based on feedback from small manufacturers, the most serious concern today is component testing which will be addressed by the CPSC’s new interim enforcement policy. Adler was rather dismissive of the market impact of the 15 Month Rule beyond component testing and he even asserted that the VAST MAJORITY of manufacturers would be “just fine” with lifting the Stay today if they got effective protection for component testing. I question Mr. Adler’s research on this point.

The lines are drawn for tomorrow’s fight. Mr. Adler has stated a preference for a date certain of August 14, 2010 for full implementation of the testing and certification rules. Ms. Tenenbaum says she would vote to extend the Stay again if the 15 Month Rule is not completed by August 14, thereby signalling her approval of Mr. Adler’s formulation. [Market chaos be damned?] Mr. Moore generally follows the party line so you can count him in, too. If the Dems don’t move off these positions by tomorrow, we are looking at a date certain of August 14 for lifting the Stay on lead content. This would sadly be more of the same. [Makes you wonder why we all took two days out of our lives to go to the CPSC to give comments at last week's 15 Month Rule workshop, or even more bizarre, why the CPSC called for comment letters on the 15 Month Rule by January 11 - if the Commission is seriously thinking of voting tomorrow to lift the Stay without considering ANY of this input. So - which process is a sham, the workshops and the comment letters, tomorrow's vote, neither . . . or both?]

The problem with the August 14 “date certain” proposal is that the following matters have not been resolved:

• Testing frequency
• Component testing
• Re-testing requirements
• Sampling requirements
• ASTM F963
• Lab certifications

It was noted in today’s hearing that only EIGHT certified laboratories have been approved for lead content in children’s non-metal products, three on the West Coast and the rest overseas. Here’s the list:

1. Bureau Veritas (three China lab locations)
2. CTC Group
3. Intertek (two China lab locations)
4. Istituto Italiano Sicurezza Dei Giocattoli S.r.l.
5. MSR Laboratories, LLC
6. SGS (one China lab, one U.S. lab, one India lab location)
7. Specialized Technology Resources Ltd. (one China lab location)
8. Union Technology Research & Service Center

For perspective, consider these long lists of locations for three leading labs: SGS (worldwide), Intertek (China list only) and Bureau Veritas (China list only). That’s just the tip of the iceberg of the testing market (admittedly not all of these labs focus on or serve the children’s product industry). One lab we use, not on the above list, reportedly can’t seem to get someone from the CPSC to visit them to certify them for lead content testing. It’s understandable – the effort to process all these (pointless) certifications is taking a lot of the agency’s resources and time. The CPSC is just not ready to manage this enormous bureaucracy even 16 months after passage of the law. Eight labs to serve the worldwide children’s product industry for access to the U.S. market by August 14 – that’s a BAAAD joke.

With the Waxman amendment behind us, the Commission has a great chance here to focus its efforts in the right direction. The recent Omnibus Appropriations Bill (H.R. 3288) contains these instructions: “The CPSC is directed to assess enforcement efforts of [CPSIA] section 101(a), including difficulties encountered, as well as recommendations for improvement to the statute, and to report to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, as well as the House Energy and Commerce Committee and the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, no later than January 15, 2010.” This report should be the focus for the Commission at this time. The Stay is secondary to this historic opportunity, and as such the Commission should not get caught up in the moment. MANY legitimate concerns have been raised by manufacturers relating to the lead content aspects of the Stay. We are not all guilty until proven innocent – why can’t these valid doubts justify taking the time to “do this right” (as Ms. Tenenbaum called for in a November hearing)?

With change in the air, the Commission needs to seize the moment and lead us out of the wilderness by calling for a technical amendment to the law. The January 15 information request is the golden opportunity. The agency should not simply respond with something designed to please Henry Waxman – that would fumble the ball. Instead, the agency must offer up suggestions designed to meet the will of Congress expressed this week – namely, a proposal to fix the flaws in the CPSIA while providing reasonable protection to children.

It’s time to do the hard work. I am ready to help – are you?

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CPSIA – Commission Delays Vote on Lead Content Stay for One Day