CPSIA – Lowest Common Neurosis

I have a new legal standard for the CPSC in its continuing effort to make everyone so, so, SOOOO safe: the “Lowest Common Neurosis”. Under this innovative legal standard, our safety agency would reset its legal standards and reissue 2500 pages of rules every time a ridiculous news article appears touting a poorly-conceived, made-up phobia relating to children’s products. There are so many examples to think of, from cadmium jewelry (thanks, AP!) to Zhu Zhu Pets with lethal noses to the latest craze, making hourly employees at the checkout counter cough up General Conformity Certificates on the spot.

Hadn’t heard of that one yet? This is the latest craze sweeping the nation, thoughtfully brought to our attention by the Dallas CBS affiliate on May 10. Their report begins ominously: “Mindee Haas buys plenty of toys for her 15-month-old daughter Sophia. Haas, 33, says she usually trusts those toys are safe, but her trust is fading after a recent run of toy recalls.”

Ah, the “recent run of toy recalls”. And those were what, precisely??? I think the crack CBS “investigator” is referring to the recalls in 2007/8. They certainly couldn’t be referring to recent recalls because toy recall rates have fallen precipitously. According to data from the CPSC website, there have been a grand total of nine recalls through April 15 of this year (one alleged injury, from laceration) and only 32 in 2009 (20 alleged injuries and one death, none from lead). This is very low by historical standards. Of the 3 billion toys estimated sold per year in our country, only 4,530,860 were recalled in 2009 over 32 recalls. The total units recalled this year is 888,680 through April 15. This amounts to a recall of approximately 1 in 1,000 toys sold (in other words, 99.9% toys were NOT recalled in 2009/10).

I guess a crisis is whatever CBS Dallas says it is.

Apparently not satisfied with creating a scare about imaginary recalls, the CBS affiliate continues to intone, quoting the mom: “‘I don’t want [my daughter] to be a lab rat at home,’ said Haas ‘There are so many things in toys these days that we just don’t know the effects of them long term and that’s what’s scary.’ Toy after toy has been yanked off the shelves deemed unsafe for children.”

To “investigate”, CBS decided to find evidence of toy safety. They chose the low budget route and opted to NOT test toys, perhaps fearing that the toys would pass (and then what would they be able to say?). Instead, Matahari-like, “CBS 11 News went undercover inside the most popular toy stores to see if they had the certificates for their toys.”

Frankly, if I still had a sense of humor about this awful law and its devastating consequences, I might find this rather amusing. I don’t. Here’s what CBS did, in their own words:

“Employees at both stores and even a manager said this was the first time they heard about safety certificates. ‘I have a guest who’s wanting to buy a toy she says she was told that you can get a certificate printed out something that says there’s been a lead recall or not,’ asked a Target employee ‘It shows if the toy has been tested for lead.’ We waited as the employee got an answer from her manager, ‘Do you know anything about that?’ Manager: ‘No I have never heard that we don’t have certificate.’” Incredibly, the checkout person at Babies R Us and Toys R Us also did not have a copy of the company’s safety files right there for inspection. Whoa!

I think this is CBS’s hidden camera video of their investigation:

CBS was able to get some great insights on the problem from a SMU Marketing professor. He thinks the stores are blowing it. “‘Not only is it important to have [the GCCs], but you could use [the certificates] to market your store,’ explained [Dan] Howard ‘You could advertise the fact that we have it!’ When asked how difficult he thought it was to simply know about the certificates Howard responded ‘Not difficult at all!’”

Dan Howard says it’s not difficult at all to have checkout counter access to GCCs at Target, TRU and all other U.S. retail outlets for children’s products. Well that settles it! I sense a new rule a-comin’!

And how does Mom feel about the CBS findings? I think she articulates our new Lowest Common Neurosis rather well: “‘Just not knowing if the companies are being responsible enough to know what’s in their products that’s what’s concerning,’” said Haas. She says she will stick to going to her mom and pop shops for the time being.”

Anyone want to kick in for a national Xanax fund?

Read more here:
CPSIA – Lowest Common Neurosis

CPSIA – In Memory of Harrison Bergeron

One of my great frustrations with the CPSIA is its presumption that all children’s product manufacturers are identical and none can be trusted to operate responsibly without vigorous government oversight. The CPSC, under the direction of the CPSIA and Congressional zealots from the Democratic Party, are developing identical safety and business administration processes for all businesses making children’s products, notwithstanding an absence of data confirming hazards (think books, bikes, ATVs, pens, educational products). This lowest common denominator approach is one of the main sources of increased expense for businesses like ours. And, unfortunately, this offense of government intrusiveness adds no value to our safety efforts despite the self-congratulations of the Democrats leading the charge in Congress and at the CPSC.

Why don’t I want to be like everyone else? Why don’t I want the government to tell me how to run my business “better”? Of course, the CPSC has absolutely no idea how to effectively operate our business. Even more importantly, the CPSC’s voluminous new rules misappropriate the value of our innovations and know-how. We taught ourselves how to efficiently assure the quality of our products – that’s how we achieved our enviable safety record over a quarter century. The fact that we can do it at a low cost does not make us bad people – this is an economic advantage we should be entitled to capture and use. The CPSC has written rules to take that advantage away. This policy is un-American and profounding anti-small business. We are no longer able to compete with larger companies by being smarter or fleeter-of-foot.

By making everyone “equal” (forcing adoption of government-designed and government-approved procedures), Democrats like Inez Tenenbaum and Bob Adler now prohibit our company from prospering from hard work, innovation and investment in productivity and efficiency. The Dems’ justification is that they know what’s best for us and for all American consumers. Other than bravado, this assertion has no basis in fact. Even the very existence of the “crisis” they seek to avert (with our money) is very much in doubt.

If I am wrong, someone should show me DATA to prove it.

To protect the public from imaginary crises, our government just wants everyone to be equal. Kurt Vonnegut addressed this approach to government regulation in his dark short story “Harrison Bergeron”. The set-up for the tragic story of Harrison Bergeron is simple – and familiar:

“THE YEAR WAS 2081, and everybody was finally equal. They weren’t only equal before God and the law. They were equal every which way. Nobody was smarter than anybody else. Nobody was better looking than anybody else. Nobody was stronger or quicker than anybody else. All this equality was due to the 211th, 212th, and 213th Amendments to the Constitution, and to the unceasing vigilance of agents of the United States Handicapper General.”

The CPSC seems eager to be our industry’s U.S. Handicapper General, driven by the CPSIA and the Waxmanis.

In “Harrison Bergeron”, all individuality has been eradicated by law. Those who by the grace of G-d or through their own efforts crafted some form of advantage were reduced to the lowest common denominator by the H-G. Resentment of successful people is called the Tall Poppy Syndrome in some countries. Ironically, people in the U.S. tend to admire the successful and seek to emulate them. The CPSIA takes an opposite tack – Mother Government knows best and safety innovation must be illegal. We need “standards”. The Tall Poppies can’t be trusted.

I hate to feel like Harrison Bergeron. The bad feelings sting all the worse because I know that the “crisis” is imaginary and has been coopted for political and populist advantage. This is an awful justification for destroying our lives’ work. Even more demoralizing, we have already proven our expertise in supply chain management and quality control/compliance over many years. No matter. The CPSC knows best.

Something’s VERY wrong here. Is it any wonder that there is anti-incumbency rage in this country now?

Read more here:
CPSIA – In Memory of Harrison Bergeron

CPSIA – Numbers Don’t Lie (Update No. 1)

I have received a lot of feedback on my data on injuries from lead since I published it on Thursday. Some of the comments deserve further exploration.

a. Did anyone have this data previously? I think the answer is NO. I have heard from inside the CPSC that this kind of data analysis is not being done. The data is nowhere to be found, except here. Recent testimony by consumer advocates and Congressional zealots is strangely bereft of details, just long on invective. Don’t we deserve better?

The hysteria over lead-in-paint recalls, combined with other recalls that were unrelated created such a lynch mob atmosphere in Congress that the only data that registered was data that supported the mob’s POV. The actual data is therefore something of a surprise.

Let’s look at the four reported lead injuries for a moment. The one death from lead, the famous incident in Minnesota where Jarnell Brown swallowed a lead charm off a Reebok bracelet, is well-known.

Injury no. 1: L.M. Becker recall (vending machine jewelry, Sept. 10, 2003): “The firm received one report of a child who swallowed the necklace’s pendant, which reportedly resulted in high blood lead levels.”

Injury no. 2: Four company recall (vending machine jewelry, July 8, 2004): “CPSC has received one report of lead poisoning when a child swallowed a piece of toy jewelry containing lead that was previously recalled. No reports of injury or illness have been received for the recalled products announced today.” THIS REFERS TO THE L.M. BECKER “INJURY” ABOVE.

Injury no. 3: Munrie Furniture, Inc. (cribs and matching furniture, December 23, 2008): “Munrie has received one report of a child ingesting the paint. The child was diagnosed with lead poisoning.”

Injury no. 4: Allreds Design (bracelets and clips, February 17, 2010): “Allreds Design received one report of a 10-month-old child who was treated by a physician for elevated lead levels.”

Do these three injuries (one injury is double-counted) have anything in common? I assert that causation is not proven in these cases. Yes, lead poisoning is alleged, however there is no evidence that the cause has been determined definitively. READ what the CPSC said – the connection to the defective children’s product is loose or even conjectural (“reportedly resulted in high blood lead levels”). Remember car seats that gave kids lead poisoning? Toxic car seats were a hoax. The injury data is flimsy at best. And this is all the evidence there is of injury from lead in children’s products in the last 11 years of recalls.

The Democrats and consumer groups would rather eat broken glass that admit that the lead poisoning scare is a hoax. They want to run our businesses – so there’s no conceding that all this economic damage cannot be traced to anything other than ONE TRAGIC ACCIDENT IN AN ELEVEN YEAR PERIOD. Uno, that’s it, in our country of 300 million where thousands of kids die every year for various reasons.

Well, at least we know our companies will die in a valiant cause, to reduce the ten-year death rate from lead in children’s products from one to zero . . . .

b. Was the CPSC really broken? This is Mr. Waxman’s assertion, as expressed in his opening remarks at the April 29 hearing. So it must be true, right?

I hope to provide more data on this topic soon. In the meantime, I will simply pass along the comments of a friend who is in the CPSC community, namely that Congress underfunded the CPSC for 20 years, leading to severely constrained budgets and hiring. Consider these quotes from a 2007 Businessweek article about the CPSC:

“Yet while the CPSC has never been more vital, through much of its 33-year history the agency has been chronically understaffed and underfunded. Overseeing 400 recalls a year, most at companies’ requests, the CPSC’s compliance team has less time to initiate its own investigations, which tend to reveal the most serious risks. . . . Growing workload and shrinking resources have left many disheartened. From a peak of nearly 1,000 in 1980, CPSC’s head count has fallen to 400. . . . What can be done to help the agency? In a word, money. It’s been 17 years since Congress thoroughly reviewed the CPSC’s resources and needs, says Nord.”

So, let’s see, Congress has been tightfisted with budgets for this little agency for many years, starving it of needed resources and headcount, effectively shrinking it over a 17-year period to a withered state, and then after an outbreak of large-scale toy recalls (by and large injury-free), Congress blames the agency for inattention to its mission and severely rewrites the law to punish the marketplace and the agency itself.

After all, why blame the entity responsible for the problem in the first place, Congress? Much easier to blame the agency!

c. Wow, those were a LOT of recalls? Is that the tip of the iceberg? As far as I can tell, the answer is that most of the iceberg is a mirage. Experienced CPSC hands note that the recall notices are prepared by the press office at the CPSC and are meant to attract attention and headlines. Big numbers, if defensible, are best suited to demonstrate that the cop is on the beat. A few tricks of the trade is to add in as many sources of “recalled” items as possible. I believe that as many as 60% (that’s no typo) of all recalled units NEVER WERE SOLD. I would simply observe that if they were never sold, they never had the potential to cause injury.

Second, the population of recalled items is always inflated out of an abundance of caution whenever there is ANY doubt as to the identity of dangerous products. In other words, if a company sold one bad lot but also sold nine good lots, all indistinguishable, the recall would be announced for all ten lots, even though there is NO dispute that nine of the lots are absolutely fine.

Without this insight, recall statistics might be alarming, at least in a sense. Actually, the recalls are something of a mirage, an illusion of legions of bad products that really don’t exist or were never sold. How can we verify this? Among other things, injury statistics back up this assertion. If we had 300 million units of dangerous products in circulation, the injury statistics of 2381 injuries in 11 years seems pretty low to me. Assuming an average time in the marketplace of three years per recalled item, this implies an annual injury rate of 0.026% (from all causes, not simply lead). If the products are in the market for only one year on average, the annual injury rate is still only 0.077%. In other words, in a worst case scenario, you can safely use RECALLED children’s products 99.92% of the time. And you would presumably be even safer with NON-RECALLED products.

Oooo, scary.

Think of it this way: There are about 3 billion toys sold in the U.S. annually, according to Alan Hassenfeld, former CEO of Hasbro. Over 11 years, that 33 billion toys. [Considering that "Children's Products" includes far more than just toys, the pool of 11 years of sales is probably north of 500 billion units.] Were you to assume that all 899 recalls in my data were toys, the pool of 308 million units recalled would represent 0.93% of all toys sold in that period. So, if 0.93% is safe 99.92% of the time, and the rest presumably safe at a higher rate (let’s say 99.999%), then the blended safety of all toys is 99.99%. The result is probably higher than that.

Numbers, numbers, do they matter?

We are spending not less than $5.6 billion per annum to “fix” this 99.99%+ safe problem. In an effort to create a much “safer” environment for kids, the helpful folks at the CPSC have produced literally thousands of pages of documents, rules and instructions to govern our businesses down to the tiniest detail. Unfortunately . . . the assertion that anyone will be safer CANNOT be proven as a matter of mathematics.

A neurotic bill administered by people who no longer can assess what is and is not safe is a danger to our society. The data proves it. Who should be held accountable? Congress? The Dems? Inez Tenenbaum? Some or all of the above.

Read more here:
CPSIA – Numbers Don’t Lie (Update No. 1)

CPSIA – CPSIA Casualty of the Week for May 10

The Alliance for Children’s Product Safety’s “CPSIA Casualty of the Week” highlights how the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act (CPSIA) is disrupting the U.S. marketplace in order to draw attention to the problems faced by small businesses, public institutions, consumers and others trying to comply with senseless and often contradictory provisions of the law. These provisions do nothing to improve product safety, but are driving small businesses out of the market.

Congress and the CPSC need to address the problems with CPSIA implementation to help small businesses by restoring “common sense” to our nation’s product safety laws.

CPSIA Casualty of the Week for May 10, 2010:

Beloved Minnesota store The Essence of Nonsense Closed by
the Essence of Nonsense (CPSIA)

Tom Fletcher and his business partner Barbara Anderson-Sannes opened The Essence of Nonsense toy store 14 years ago dedicated to selling unique, high-quality toys out of their St, Paul, Minnesota shop. Offering an array of the best handmade toys from small domestic toymakers and traditional European manufacturers, The Essence of Nonsense became an important retail destination in the local community.

After the CPSIA imposed new restrictions on the toy industry, Tom and Barbara found that their suppliers greatly reduced the range of products available. Even more disturbing, they also noticed that the quality of products was rapidly deteriorating. Rather than sell inferior quality products, they decided to close the store. This was no “victory” for safety – their store had never experienced a recall of any of its specialized products.

“CPSIA cut our choices in half,” says Tom Fletcher. “Some small companies stopped selling or disappeared and the bigger companies, realizing they were the only options, started to reduce quality to save money for themselves. So, we decided to close in large part because the quality of our product offering was changing and the choices were becoming so limited.”

“It’s not that we’re against the [CPSIA-imposed] testing,” Fletcher continued. “It’s just that we need a fair application across the board. Small businesses can’t afford to hire the necessary testers which puts them at a significant disadvantage and can even put them out of business.”

Tragically, the closing of The Essence of Nonsense is a cautionary tale about how the overly-restrictive burdens of the new product safety regime can destroy small businesses and imperil their unique products. On the back of a precautionary law, a wave of destruction is carrying away the life’s work of many small businesspeople.

“When you pick up a handmade toy,” Fletcher says, “you can feel the dedication and effort that went into making it. Someone really loved making that toy. If something isn’t done to protect small businesses, handmade toys will be gone soon. People will look back and say, ‘we had this when I was a kid and we don’t have it anymore.’”

Read more here:
CPSIA – CPSIA Casualty of the Week for May 10

CPSIA – Publishers HOWL Over Inadequate Waxman Amendment

As rumors swirl over the demise of the Waxman Amendment (CPSEA) over Mr. Waxman’s stubborn refusal to fix the CPSIA, the Publishing industry is bemoaning their fate under the awful CPSIA. Stand in line, baby!

In an article in Publishers Weekly online, the publishers noted that last week’s hearing did not “address the needs of the book publishing industry, which argues that it should be exempted since virtually no ‘ordinary’ children’s books contain lead above the limits outlined in the CPSIA.” Hmmm. Apparently, the publishers don’t have much of a sense of humor about the burden of being swept up in new safety rules that will accomplish nothing:

“’We don’t see the sense of hundreds of thousands of books clogging the queues at the independent third-party testing facilities, only to be found safe, at a great burden of cost to publishers,’ said Allan Adler, v-p for legal and government affairs at the Association of American Publishers. . . . Adler noted that the current stay of enforcement expires in February 2011 and the publishing industry needs a solution before then. ‘We have our eye on the calendar.’ No matter what happens with “ordinary” children’s books, novelty and book-plus titles (such as those with plastic incorporated or toys attached) will still be subject to the CPSIA’s testing and other requirements.” [Emphasis added]

Eyes on the calendar . . . wow, the publishers really seemed pissed off. I wonder why.

Well, since you asked, here is the data for all book recalls in the last 11 years:

• Choking recalls: 8 recalls, 1 injury, no deaths
• Lead recalls: 2 recalls, no injuries, no deaths
• Lead-in-paint: 3 recalls, no injuries, no deaths
• Strangulation: 1 recall, no injuries, no deaths

Obviously a very dangerous category of products – books produced one injury in 11 years. The “injury” was that a child “began to choke”. Oh the horror of it all.

Think of the quality of our government – the book guys have been begging, literally BEGGING, for relief for almost two years now and the Dem-led Congress has utterly refused to act. The most the CPSC could do for them was to announce that books printed after 1985 were lead-free. Everybody, toss out your copy of “1984″. The government says so!

Let’s dig a bit deeper into the five recalls associated with lead. I am sure these injury-free lead recalls over the last 11 years will clarify how at risk we are:

1. Parragon, Inc.: This recall for lead featured lead solder on a jewelry charm. Oooo, that’s scary.
2. St. Martin’s Press LLC: This recall of cloth books featured a “red plastic dot” that contained high levels of lead. I assume this “dot” was made of vinyl and was not in fact coated. One might ask how this might cause lead poisoning. This recall was a head scratcher for many people after it occurred.
3. Martin Designs, Inc.: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.
4. eeBoo Corp.: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.
5. Galison/Mudpuppy: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.

Please note that the lead-in-paint violations were ALSO violations of prior law. Lead-in-paint has been illegal for decades on children’s products.

Can anyone identify the dreaded danger posed by books? As I said long ago in this space, I always thought it was the words that were dangerous in a book. Certainly that’s what seems to be dangerous in a blog . . . .

And perhaps someone from the CPSC (I know you are reading this, I can see you!) could leave a comment here admitting how many man-hours have been spent (wasted) on the book issue under the CPSIA. I bet it’s nothing short of 500 man-hours, and would not be surprised if it’s more than a full man-year.

And remember, when the CPSC devotes all its resources to counting angels dancing on the head of a pin, they have very little time to find dangerous products (no, I mean ACTUALLY dangerous products). Feeling safer yet? [You shouldn't.]

Too bad, book people. You are a “necessary sacrifice” to the greater cause of making children so, so, SOOOOO safe.

Read more here:
CPSIA – Publishers HOWL Over Inadequate Waxman Amendment

CPSIA – Publishers HOWL Over Inadequate Waxman Amendment

As rumors swirl over the demise of the Waxman Amendment (CPSEA) over Mr. Waxman’s stubborn refusal to fix the CPSIA, the Publishing industry is bemoaning their fate under the awful CPSIA. Stand in line, baby!

In an article in Publishers Weekly online, the publishers noted that last week’s hearing did not “address the needs of the book publishing industry, which argues that it should be exempted since virtually no ‘ordinary’ children’s books contain lead above the limits outlined in the CPSIA.” Hmmm. Apparently, the publishers don’t have much of a sense of humor about the burden of being swept up in new safety rules that will accomplish nothing:

“’We don’t see the sense of hundreds of thousands of books clogging the queues at the independent third-party testing facilities, only to be found safe, at a great burden of cost to publishers,’ said Allan Adler, v-p for legal and government affairs at the Association of American Publishers. . . . Adler noted that the current stay of enforcement expires in February 2011 and the publishing industry needs a solution before then. ‘We have our eye on the calendar.’ No matter what happens with “ordinary” children’s books, novelty and book-plus titles (such as those with plastic incorporated or toys attached) will still be subject to the CPSIA’s testing and other requirements.” [Emphasis added]

Eyes on the calendar . . . wow, the publishers really seemed pissed off. I wonder why.

Well, since you asked, here is the data for all book recalls in the last 11 years:

• Choking recalls: 8 recalls, 1 injury, no deaths
• Lead recalls: 2 recalls, no injuries, no deaths
• Lead-in-paint: 3 recalls, no injuries, no deaths
• Strangulation: 1 recall, no injuries, no deaths

Obviously a very dangerous category of products – books produced one injury in 11 years. The “injury” was that a child “began to choke”. Oh the horror of it all.

Think of the quality of our government – the book guys have been begging, literally BEGGING, for relief for almost two years now and the Dem-led Congress has utterly refused to act. The most the CPSC could do for them was to announce that books printed after 1985 were lead-free. Everybody, toss out your copy of “1984″. The government says so!

Let’s dig a bit deeper into the five recalls associated with lead. I am sure these injury-free lead recalls over the last 11 years will clarify how at risk we are:

1. Parragon, Inc.: This recall for lead featured lead solder on a jewelry charm. Oooo, that’s scary.
2. St. Martin’s Press LLC: This recall of cloth books featured a “red plastic dot” that contained high levels of lead. I assume this “dot” was made of vinyl and was not in fact coated. One might ask how this might cause lead poisoning. This recall was a head scratcher for many people after it occurred.
3. Martin Designs, Inc.: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.
4. eeBoo Corp.: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.
5. Galison/Mudpuppy: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.

Please note that the lead-in-paint violations were ALSO violations of prior law. Lead-in-paint has been illegal for decades on children’s products.

Can anyone identify the dreaded danger posed by books? As I said long ago in this space, I always thought it was the words that were dangerous in a book. Certainly that’s what seems to be dangerous in a blog . . . .

And perhaps someone from the CPSC (I know you are reading this, I can see you!) could leave a comment here admitting how many man-hours have been spent (wasted) on the book issue under the CPSIA. I bet it’s nothing short of 500 man-hours, and would not be surprised if it’s more than a full man-year.

And remember, when the CPSC devotes all its resources to counting angels dancing on the head of a pin, they have very little time to find dangerous products (no, I mean ACTUALLY dangerous products). Feeling safer yet? [You shouldn't.]

Too bad, book people. You are a “necessary sacrifice” to the greater cause of making children so, so, SOOOOO safe.

Read more here:
CPSIA – Publishers HOWL Over Inadequate Waxman Amendment

CPSIA – Publishers HOWL Over Inadequate Waxman Amendment

As rumors swirl over the demise of the Waxman Amendment (CPSEA) over Mr. Waxman’s stubborn refusal to fix the CPSIA, the Publishing industry is bemoaning their fate under the awful CPSIA. Stand in line, baby!

In an article in Publishers Weekly online, the publishers noted that last week’s hearing did not “address the needs of the book publishing industry, which argues that it should be exempted since virtually no ‘ordinary’ children’s books contain lead above the limits outlined in the CPSIA.” Hmmm. Apparently, the publishers don’t have much of a sense of humor about the burden of being swept up in new safety rules that will accomplish nothing:

“’We don’t see the sense of hundreds of thousands of books clogging the queues at the independent third-party testing facilities, only to be found safe, at a great burden of cost to publishers,’ said Allan Adler, v-p for legal and government affairs at the Association of American Publishers. . . . Adler noted that the current stay of enforcement expires in February 2011 and the publishing industry needs a solution before then. ‘We have our eye on the calendar.’ No matter what happens with “ordinary” children’s books, novelty and book-plus titles (such as those with plastic incorporated or toys attached) will still be subject to the CPSIA’s testing and other requirements.” [Emphasis added]

Eyes on the calendar . . . wow, the publishers really seemed pissed off. I wonder why.

Well, since you asked, here is the data for all book recalls in the last 11 years:

• Choking recalls: 8 recalls, 1 injury, no deaths
• Lead recalls: 2 recalls, no injuries, no deaths
• Lead-in-paint: 3 recalls, no injuries, no deaths
• Strangulation: 1 recall, no injuries, no deaths

Obviously a very dangerous category of products – books produced one injury in 11 years. The “injury” was that a child “began to choke”. Oh the horror of it all.

Think of the quality of our government – the book guys have been begging, literally BEGGING, for relief for almost two years now and the Dem-led Congress has utterly refused to act. The most the CPSC could do for them was to announce that books printed after 1985 were lead-free. Everybody, toss out your copy of “1984″. The government says so!

Let’s dig a bit deeper into the five recalls associated with lead. I am sure these injury-free lead recalls over the last 11 years will clarify how at risk we are:

1. Parragon, Inc.: This recall for lead featured lead solder on a jewelry charm. Oooo, that’s scary.
2. St. Martin’s Press LLC: This recall of cloth books featured a “red plastic dot” that contained high levels of lead. I assume this “dot” was made of vinyl and was not in fact coated. One might ask how this might cause lead poisoning. This recall was a head scratcher for many people after it occurred.
3. Martin Designs, Inc.: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.
4. eeBoo Corp.: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.
5. Galison/Mudpuppy: This recall involved lead paint on the spiral binding of a book.

Please note that the lead-in-paint violations were ALSO violations of prior law. Lead-in-paint has been illegal for decades on children’s products.

Can anyone identify the dreaded danger posed by books? As I said long ago in this space, I always thought it was the words that were dangerous in a book. Certainly that’s what seems to be dangerous in a blog . . . .

And perhaps someone from the CPSC (I know you are reading this, I can see you!) could leave a comment here admitting how many man-hours have been spent (wasted) on the book issue under the CPSIA. I bet it’s nothing short of 500 man-hours, and would not be surprised if it’s more than a full man-year.

And remember, when the CPSC devotes all its resources to counting angels dancing on the head of a pin, they have very little time to find dangerous products (no, I mean ACTUALLY dangerous products). Feeling safer yet? [You shouldn't.]

Too bad, book people. You are a “necessary sacrifice” to the greater cause of making children so, so, SOOOOO safe.

Read more here:
CPSIA – Publishers HOWL Over Inadequate Waxman Amendment

CPSIA – Numbers Don’t Lie

One of my greatest frustrations with the CPSIA debate is its highly emotional tenor. It seems to me that the debate trades more in passion than in analysis. Since the big issue is safety, namely incidents of injury and death among children from consumer products, the resolution should depend on statistics and science – but the discussion NEVER goes there. Solutions based on a pure heart and good intentions won’t solve a numbers problem. Many people involved in this law have little background in science. It is also clear that some people are playing fast and loose with data. That’s a problem.

Many people use data relating to lead and childhood injuries that play on basic human emotions. After all, who would want another child to be injured, much less killed? That truism is justification for the CPSIA as “necessity”, notwithstanding possible “unintended consequences”. Even the mere mention of cost and effectiveness discredits opponents of the law.

A convenient example of this phenomenon is Henry Waxman’s opening statement at last week’s hearing. He called out three separate incidents of injury to kids: “Just over four years ago, a little boy named Jarnell Brown died of lead poisoning when he swallowed a metal charm that came with a pair of kids’ shoes. A year later, in 2007, two children became comatose and had to be hospitalized because of a children’s toy that turned out to have a toxic drug in it. That same year, millions of cribs were recalled for a simple defect that had caused multiple infant deaths.“

These three groupings of injuries are unrelated and derive from radically different hazards. Jarnell Brown swallowed a jewelry charm made of lead. The two kids were affected by AquaDots, an unprecedented, one-of-a-kind chemical toy defect. Crib injuries are obviously of a different nature and involve a separately regulated category of child (infants) subject to unique risks. Despite the wildly disparate data, he concludes: “The bottom line was clear: our system for keeping children safe was broken.“

While I think that the Cubs are pretty mediocre and so are the Bulls, I don’t think Chicago is broken. This is apples-and-oranges. So goes the CPSIA debate.

Let me be clear, I am not saying Waxman INTENDED to mislead with his remarks – no, in fact this is how most people have treated data in support of the law. Few if anyone uses actual balanced injury or hazard data. Even the fear mongers’ standard of “there’s no safe level for lead” is almost obviously untrue but it strikes an emotional chord and is, at one level, hard to refute. Clearly, sprinkling lead on your bowl of cereal in the morning isn’t recommended. That said, it is equally clear that lead is very infrequently deadly and since we all consume lead daily by breathing, eating and drinking, it must be tolerable (at a minimum) at certain dosage levels. Thus there has to be a “safe” level for lead – or else we’d all be as dumb as a box of rocks. I consider to be a simple observation.

So what’s the truth? Data on recalls and the hazards uncovered by the CPSC is frankly hard to come by. I went through the exercise of preparing a 25-month analysis of lead-in-paint back in February 2009 and published my data. The data were great but frankly, I needed more. So I set out to prepare a much broader survey of recall data so we could really talk numbers. I have attached a data analysis of the 899 CPSC recalls of Children’s Products between March 5, 1999 and April 15, 2010. This is slightly over 11 years of data and while it is a somewhat arbitrary period, I consider it statistically significant and useful to reason from.

A few caveats: I prepared this data with the assistance of several people and spent quite a bit of time cleaning it up. It is good data, but almost certainly inaccurate in some respect or respects. This is not intentional and I would certainly welcome notice of any errors you may find. The source of the data is posted recall notices on the CPSC website. The categorization of products and hazards might be considered quirky and could be misleading if you do not look at the details. However, overall, this is the best data I know of for an analysis of injuries and deaths from Children’s Products.

The rationale behind this analysis is that official CPSC recall data over an 11-year period reflects the policies, judgment and decisions of the agency and is revealing about what the agency thought was and was not important during that period of time.

The spreadsheet has three worksheets. You have complete access to ALL of my data. I have incorporated hyperlinks to EVERY recall in the spreadsheet, so you can dig deeper if you are so inclined. The first sheet, entitled “Total by Category” is sorted by Product Category. The second sheet, entitled “Total by Year” sorts the same data by Recall Date. The final sheet, entitled “Summary by Product” includes FOUR ANALYSES pulled from the first two sheets. There is recall statistical data by (i) product category by hazard, (ii) hazard by product category, (iii) year by hazard, and (iv) hazard by year. Four slices of the data, never before seen.

Some interesting facts:

• Grand Total Recalls: 899
• Grand Total Children’s Products Recalled: 3,128
• Grand Total Units Recalled: 308,697,297 (remember, this is over 11 years)
• Grand Total Injuries to Kids from Recalled Products: 2,381
• Grand Total Deaths from Recalled Products: 35

Okay, let’s unpack this data. First of all, this is inclusive of ALL Children’s Products. That would include the recall of 150 million units of vending machine jewelry in 2004. It also includes all crib, bassinet, play pen and stroller recalls. Even common toy box recalls are included. You are welcome to react emotionally to these gross numbers, but please remember, this is a mishmash of 11 years of data at the macro level. We need to probe more deeply for real insights.

For perspective on these data, please consider CDC data on childhood mortality: the current mortality rate for kids age 1-4 is 4,631 per annum (leading causes of death: unintentional injuries and congenital malformations) and for kids age 5-14 is 6,149 per annum (leading causes of death: unintentional injuries and cancer). I believe unintentional injuries are principally car accidents. Anyhow, this implies an 11-year mortality rate of 118,580. Notably the annual mortality rates exclude kids 0-1. I don’t have those numbers and haven’t bothered to look for them. You get the picture. The CPSC has accounted for 35 deaths in the same period.

It bears noting that these statistics suggest that our markets are in fact rather safe. Injuries to children and deaths associated with Children’s Products, while unacceptably high, are just 0.03% of the overall mortality statistics. We can and should continue to focus on improvements, but we should also have some perspective on our challenge. Polishing the apple is different than crisis management.

To further clarify the injury/death problem from lead, let’s look at the breakout of injuries and deaths by hazard. Unlike my February 2009 analysis, this data shows all hazards and all recalls in the 11-year period. Please note that some of these hazards are very closely associated with one or two product categories. Lead is closely associated with jewelry. Lead-in-paint is largely associated with toys but touches almost all product categories. Falling and entrapment is a largely infant category. Strangulation is mainly clothing (certainly of late, with all the drawstring recalls) and infant products. With this data, you can see what comes from where.

Injuries and deaths from Children’s Products in this period break down as follows:

• Brake Failure 0, 0
• Burns 74, 0
• Cadmium 0, 0
• Choking 150, 3
• Collision 2, 0
• Falling/entrapment 1803, 17
• Fire hazard 4, 0
• Illness 0, 0
• Impalement 0, 0
• Laceration 284, 0
• Lead 3, 1 [The only death from lead in 11 years is Jarnell Brown, mentioned above.]
• Lead-in-paint 1, 0 [That's right, ONE INJURY in 11 years, no deaths.]
• Magnets 3, 0
• Strangulation 26, 7
• Suffocation 29, 7

A quick question: if you were running the CPSC and had access to this data, what would you focus on? Interestingly, if you look at lead and lead-in-paint recalls in the early years of this data, you will see something that seems somehow quaint now, namely very few recalls and in small quantities for lead and lead-in-paint.

• 1999: 0 recalls [partial year]
• 2000: 0 recalls
• 2001: 5 recalls
• 2002: 3 recalls
• 2003: 4 recalls
• 2004: 6 recalls
• 2005: 10 recalls
• 2006: 16 recalls
• 2007: 98 recalls
• 2008: 65 recalls
• 2009: 29 recalls
• 2010: 11 recalls [partial year]

Was the agency napping . . . or was the CPSC behaving rationally? What were they doing when they could have been catching lead-in-paint violations? Check my analysis: they were focusing on choking, falling/entrapment and laceration, presumably because these hazards were causing BY FAR the most injuries and deaths. Lead and lead-in-paint produced almost no injuries or deaths for 11 years. It is also worth noting in 2007, that under withering political and populist pressure, the agency changed its recall policy on lead and lead-in-paint to strict liability (every violation was recalled). In the early part of the decade, many lead violations were dealt with privately by the agency, making statistical comparisons impossible (and giving the incorrect impression of laxity by the agency at that time).

The data is also useful to give perspective on the effectiveness of the CPSIA’s application of regulatory and corporate resources to new safety activities. In conjunction with last week’s hearing, the HTA filed an economic analysis prepared by an independent safety consultant that projects aggregate annual CPSIA testing costs of $5.6 billion. Personally, I think that number is very low for the all-in economic impact from this law, but for the sake of argument, let’s use it as THE number for regulatory compliance. So we are all going to spend $5.6 billion ANNUALLY to comply with this law regulating lead and phthalates. Over an 11-year period, ignoring inflation, our costs will be $61.6 billion. This expenditure is presumably designed to reduce the incidents of lead poisoning and phthalates. We have accounted for four injuries and one death. That’s what our $61.6 billion is aimed at.

Consider this: if we really want to keep kids safe, we should be somewhat indifferent to HOW they are injured – we just want to protect them from harm. Thus, a bump on the head, a broken arm and lead poisoning are all the same, equally bad. So what if we spent at the same rate on ALL injuries and death identified in CPSC recalls, at the projected CPSIA spend rate? Our cost would be $61.6 billion / 5 (11-year lead and lead-in-paint injuries and deaths) X 2416 (total injuries and deaths in the same period). Sitting down? The total compliance cost we would bear over 11 years would be $29.8 trillion ($2.7 trillion per year). The current national debt is $12.95 trillion. Please also consider that our annual safety expenditures would exceed the expected receipts of the federal government this year ($2.4 trillion). If the federal government only funded us, the government would still run a $300 billion deficit this year.

Call me a worrywart, but I think that kind of safety spending is a bit over the top.

The debate over safety has dramatic economic implications. Safety is a principal concern of the industries serving children’s markets, of course, but if we are crippled economically we won’t be around to make safe products. There is a sensible balance that can be achieved. The data suggests that the CPSC actually knows what it’s doing (at least it did before it became a political football) and can properly allocate its resources.

If the CPSC were entitled to focus on real safety risks (based on data), not the phobias of politicians and consumer groups, and if they could be convinced to stop trying to run our businesses for us, I think we could reduce and refocus safety spending and become much more effective in improving safety.

Numbers don’t lie. It’s time to reassess and amend the CPSIA. And if the Dems won’t let us do that, it’s time to reassess them and Congress as a whole.

Read more here:
CPSIA – Numbers Don’t Lie

CPSIA – Imagine the Fun, the Commission to Discuss the "15 Month Rule" Tomorrow

The CPSC Commission will be discussing the following matters tomorrow at 9 AM EST:

1. Testing and Labeling to Product Certification – Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR) and Testing Component Parts – Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR)
2. CPSA 15(j) Rule for Drawstrings – Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR)
3. CPSA 15(j) Rule for Hairdryers – Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR)
4. Infant Bath Seats – Final Rule – and Laboratory Accreditation

Please NOTE that the Testing and Labeling rules (the “15 Month Rule” announced on April 1) has been converted into a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to expedite its completion. Other than their desire to move on to something more interesting to do, why do you suppose the Commission is so hot-to-trot to get this rulemaking behind them?

Could it be that they REALLY want to lift the testing stay on February 10, 2011, as PROMISED? Hmmm.

You can view the hearing tomorrow at this link.

Read more here:
CPSIA – Imagine the Fun, the Commission to Discuss the "15 Month Rule" Tomorrow

CPSIA – Imagine the Fun, the Commission to Discuss the "15 Month Rule" Tomorrow

The CPSC Commission will be discussing the following matters tomorrow at 9 AM EST:

1. Testing and Labeling to Product Certification – Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR) and Testing Component Parts – Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR)
2. CPSA 15(j) Rule for Drawstrings – Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR)
3. CPSA 15(j) Rule for Hairdryers – Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR)
4. Infant Bath Seats – Final Rule – and Laboratory Accreditation

Please NOTE that the Testing and Labeling rules (the “15 Month Rule” announced on April 1) has been converted into a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to expedite its completion. Other than their desire to move on to something more interesting to do, why do you suppose the Commission is so hot-to-trot to get this rulemaking behind them?

Could it be that they REALLY want to lift the testing stay on February 10, 2011, as PROMISED? Hmmm.

You can view the hearing tomorrow at this link.

Read more here:
CPSIA – Imagine the Fun, the Commission to Discuss the "15 Month Rule" Tomorrow

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